Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”